United Gaming Advisors / Monte Cristo Gaming — November 4, 2026
Yesterday I laid out who we wanted to win and why. The results are in, and most of our picks lost. The scenario we rated "faster, worse economics" is the one Pennsylvania chose. Here is what happened and what I would do now. Results are unofficial until certified.
What happened
Governor. Josh Shapiro won a second term. The AP called it one minute after polls closed (Spotlight PA). Unofficial results have him at about 60% to Stacy Garrity's 38.5% (PoliticsPA). Spotlight noted that the late wave of skill-games money behind Garrity "did not prove fruitful."
State Senate. Republicans went in with a 27-23 majority. Democrats flipped four seats, in the 6th, 16th, 24th and 40th districts, and lost one, the 36th in Lancaster (PoliticsPA). That is a net gain of three and a 26-24 Democratic majority. The Inquirer reports the trifecta based on AP race calls. One caution: WFMZ reports the 16th is not officially decided, though Democrat Mark Pinsley has declared victory over Sen. Jarrett Coleman.
State House. Democrats grew their majority, to 111-92 by PoliticsPA's count.
How our picks did
Garrity, our pick on policy: lost.
Sen. Jarrett Coleman, our clearest Senate ally in a swing race: trails Pinsley 48.9% to 51.1%, unofficial.
Senate control: went Democratic. Yesterday I said that outcome means the fastest path to a bill, but most likely on Shapiro's terms, a gross-revenue tax similar to slots.
Still in our corner: Sen. Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia), now in the majority, and the 104 House cosigners of Rep. Danilo Burgos's $500-per-machine memo.
What it means
One party now holds the governor's office, the House and, pending final counts, the Senate. That removes the split-government stalemate that left skill games without a bill through the Oct. 13 deadline. It does not settle the tax rate. Shapiro's plan, as WHYY reported, is a 52% tax. None of the post-election coverage I read puts skill games on the new majority's opening agenda. Shapiro and legislative leaders named the minimum wage, reproductive rights, transit and housing. New members are sworn in Jan. 5.
Prospective Investor Inside Analysis
My view, not fact or a forecast. I was wrong about who would win, and I'd rather say so than spin it. The good news is that a trifecta can pass a bill. The fight now is not whether skill games come back, but at what rate and under what rules. Two things will move that rate. One is evidence: before-and-after ancillary sales from the bars, clubs and stores that lost the machines. The other is allies inside the majority: Sen. Williams and the Democratic cosigners of the Burgos memo. A 52% tax builds a small, casino-style field. A lower rate or a fee keeps the street-level market alive. Operators who want the second outcome need to start making the case in January, not waiting for a bill to drop.
Chicago VGT Live Tracker
IGB lists pulled Nov. 4 (City = Chicago): 78 licensed, unchanged (latest status date 10/22). Pending is 289, up two from Nov. 3, both with an 11/03 status date. Those are new applications, not decisions. Denied remains 2. No new City Council action confirmed.
Other markets
Nevada elected Democrat Aaron Ford over Gov. Joe Lombardo, and Ohio elected Democrat Amy Acton, who has said she supports online casinos with caveats (iGaming Business). In Nebraska, racetrack online-wagering Measures 440 and 441 were headed for defeat with more than 95% counted, a preliminary result. Missouri, Georgia, Texas and Illinois statewide had no new developments confirmed for Nov. 3-4.
Investors and operators: If you want in on this market, reach out and I'll show you how to win organic business the right way. Bar, club or store owners: message me about your compliant options. contact@montecristogaming.com
PA skill games operators: the new majority will want numbers. Your before-and-after ancillary sales are that evidence. Message us today to join the impact study.
Sources: Spotlight PA, governor · Spotlight PA, legislature · PoliticsPA · Inquirer · WFMZ · iGaming Business · IGB lists
