What Could Video Gaming Earn for Your Venue? How to Use Our Revenue Forecast (Honestly)
Monte Cristo Gaming — September 29, 2026
Every bar owner considering video gaming wants to know the same thing: what would it actually earn here? Most people answer that with a number someone tells them. We'd rather you build it yourself.
Project Your Revenue is a free forecast model built on how Illinois video gaming terminals really perform. Move the sliders and it recalculates instantly.
The five inputs
Number of games. Most Illinois establishments can run up to six terminals.
Average bet. Defaults to $1.40 per play, typical for the Illinois market.
Bets per minute while occupied. Defaults to 8.
Hold percentage. The share of money played that the machines keep. Illinois VGTs hold a little over 9% on average.
Occupancy by time of day. How much of each daypart (8a–2p, 2p–8p, 8p–2a, 2a–8a) the machines are actually in play. This is the input that matters most.
What it tells you
The model shows amount played per day, net terminal income (NTI) per day, win per unit (WPU) per day, and your estimated establishment share per day, month and year. Then it places your result on a bar against every Illinois establishment: the median, the top 25% and the top 10%.
Read this before you trust any forecast (including ours)
The default settings model a high-performing room, one where machines are in play about half of every daypart. That produces a win per unit well above the top 10% of Illinois locations. Some establishments do perform at that level. Most don't.
For context, the typical Illinois location wins about $92 per machine per day. The top 25% start around $160, and the top 10% around $263. Using the model's other defaults, those levels correspond to machines being in play roughly:
6% of the day for a median location
11% of the day for a top-25% location
18% of the day for a top-10% location
So start there. Set occupancy low, see the median outcome, then ask what it would take to move up. That gap, between 6% and 18% of the day, is almost entirely about the room, the service and the reasons players have to stay.
How the money is split
Net terminal income is what the machines keep after paying out wins. In Illinois, 35% of NTI goes to taxes (30% to the state, 5% to the local municipality), and a small administrative fee of just under 1% comes off the top. What remains is split 50/50 between the establishment and the terminal operator by law. That leaves the establishment with roughly 32% of NTI.
Here's what that looks like for a six-machine location:
Median ($92 WPU): about $552 NTI per day, roughly $5,400 a month to the establishment.
Top 25% ($160 WPU): about $960 NTI per day, roughly $9,400 a month.
Top 10% ($263 WPU): about $1,578 NTI per day, roughly $15,400 a month.
Same six machines, nearly three times the income. That's the difference execution makes.
Check your forecast against real results
A model is only as good as its assumptions. Before you believe any projection, look up what similar businesses in your town actually earned in our Illinois VGT Performance Database, built from two years of official Illinois Gaming Board reporting.
Build your own forecast: montecristogaming.com/revenue-forecast
Projections are illustrative estimates only and do not guarantee results. Actual performance varies by location, clientele, hours, game mix and market conditions. 21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
